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| Could Aaron Rodgers be strapping on the championship belt, again? (Chris Graythen/Getty Images) |
So, can the Green Bay Packers pull it off? To do so, they are going to have to best two division rivals, two teams fighting for their playoff lives and a division leader. One thing is undeniable, the Packers have the most prolific scoring offense in the league and it starts and stops with Aaron Rodgers. The Pack doesn't run the ball well but, to be fair, when they average 304 yards a game through the air they haven't needed to.
The Giants are in a bit of a slide as they have lost the last three games they've had. Last Monday night, the New York defense was absolutely shredded by Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense. This doesn't bode well against a team like the Packers who can sling the ball all over the yard.
For the Giants, they have the benefit of playing at home in front of a raucous New York crowd. The Giants are trying to get into the playoffs as their last loss knocked them out of the lead in the NFC East. No matter what, it's hard to count out Eli Manning at home. Even though, they got blown out, Manning and receiver Victor Cruz continue to put together a good relationship on the field. NY will likely return Mario Manningham to a thin WR corps who would aid in keeping the Giants in the game. Overall, they need to be able to establish the run as they did late against the Saints and get Brandon Jacobs to the second level where he can do some damage.
Likelihood of Packer win: 9/10
12/11 Oakland Raiders, Lambeau FieldThe Raiders are currently riding a three game win streak, their most recent being over a Chicago team who did not have their starting quarter back. Regardless, Oakland got the win holding off a late charge by the Bears and with much thanks to Sebastian Janikowski.
After losing their own starting QB Jason Campbell, the Raiders reached out to the Cincinnati Bengals and tabbed their rights to Carson Palmer. Oakland had to go through some growing pains as they dropped two straight, one of them a 28-0 decision against division rival Kansas City. Oakland boasts one of the finest rushing offenses in the league with Michael Bush and Darren McFadden. McFadden has been injured as of late but should be back by the time these two squads face off. Palmer seems to be finding his stride, throwing for 301 yards against the Bears. If Palmer can throw, he could keep the Raiders in the game as Green Bay doesn't defend the pass well, being ranked 31st in the league at 287.8 yards per game. The Raiders and the Packers are polar opposites on how they get their offenses done. A point of concern for Oakland is they give up more points than they have scored this season and going up against the Packers at home, it could pose a problem.
Likelihood of Packer win: 7/10
Similarly to the Oakland Raiders, the Chiefs are working with a different quarter back than they started the season with. The likely starter for KC at this point in the season will be Kyle Orton, former QB of the Denver Broncos who was displaced by Tim Tebow. The Chiefs haven't thrown the ball particularly well but could have a solid signal caller in Orton. Kansas City has had their share of injuries this season and it has really hurt them. Not only are they missing Matt Cassel from last year's AFC West champions. They are missing dynamic RB talent Jamaal Charles and young but talented safety Eric Berry. It wouldn't be surprising if Orton and WR Dwayne Bowe forge a good connection which could be a challenge for the Packer secondary.
KC has been a very streaky team this year. They opened the season with three consecutive losses and looked to be in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes until they rattled off four straight including back to back wins over division opponents Oakland and San Diego. As soon as it seemed they were rolling the Chiefs lost their next four including embarrassing losses to Miami and New England, 31-3 and 34-3 respectively. KC is a bit of an enigma. A week after getting blown out by the Patriots they played the Pittsburgh Steelers very tough losing only 13-9 last week. The Chiefs will be coming off two tough road tests, against Chicago and the New York Jets before returning home to host the Packers.
Likelihood of Packer win: 8/10
This is where the predictions start to get a little sticky. Looking this far ahead on the schedule is always difficult. By this time, the Chicago Bears are likely to have starting QB Jay Cutler back under center and calling the shots. They haven't been the same team with Caleb Hanie under center, forcing the defense to stay on the field and not giving them a chance to rest.
Also, to this point in the season, if everything were to stay the same meaning if Green Bay and San Francisco were to win out it would clinch the #1 overall seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The ramifications of that could echo far into Green Bay's final regular season opponent.
Likelihood of Packer win: 7/10
The Packers face their season finale against the Lions, a rematch of their Thanksgiving game and once again play on a holiday. The first time the teams got together the Packers took control early and were up 24-0 going into the fourth quarter before the Lions scored 15 points in the final period. The Packers stayed on top and came out on top by a score of 27-15. This is where things really get interesting. If the Packers are undefeated to this point in the season, they will have wrapped up the #1 seed in the play offs. In essence they will have nothing to play for except for the perfect record. I don't have a good read on whether the perfect season is important to coach Mike McCarthy or if he will sit his starters against a physical Lions defense.
Matt Flynn has played little this year, throwing only three passes in two appearances. Without Rodgers running the offense this could be the most likely game the Packers could drop. This is the caveat in which I see the Packers dropping a game this season. However, if Rodgers and the first teamers get the green light, it wouldn't be surprising for them to finish the season undefeated and head to the playoffs, looking to be only second team in NFL history to have a perfect year.
Likelihood of Packer win: 8/10
Likelihood of Packer win with Flynn as QB: 4/10
You really think the Packers have a better chance of beating the Giants over the Chiefs?
ReplyDeleteYes I do. I think that the Packers are hungry right now and are focused on clinching the top seed. Also, I think the Giants are reeling and the Monday night loss could provide a hangover for them.
ReplyDeleteLooking ahead with the Chiefs game, there are a lot more variables that go into predicting a game that doesn't happen for three weeks. I think the Chiefs have better talent on the defensive side of the ball and have a better opportunity to slow the Packers offense.
If you watched last night's game, the Giants were just abysmal against the pass and that won't change in one week.
I absolutely agree with your comments but we have to remember that the Chiefs are the same team that allowed Tom Brady two Mondays ago to score 34 points. And the Pats rely on Tom Brady's arm as much as the Packers do Rodgers.
ReplyDeleteWe're seeing mostly eye to eye on this. The Packers run a different style of offense than the Patriots do. The Patriots like to throw to their tight ends a lot. While they have about 20 fewer receptions than the WR combo of Welker and Branch, Hernandez and Gronkowski are nearly equal in yardage and are equal in TD receptions. and especially in the red zone, where the line backers are mostly tasked with defending.
ReplyDeleteIn the game against KC, New England's starting Tight Ends were the leading and second leading receivers in the game. While both offenses rely on their QBs heavily it's two differnet styles. Rodgers has only completed 36 passes to his leading TE target Jermichael Finley.
Watching the games, the weakness for the Giants is between the LB's and the secondary. The weakness for KC is between the line and the LB. I think the Giants defense, stylisticly is more likely to yield yards and points against the Packers.