Friday, July 13, 2012

California Golden Bears Way Too Early Preview

Keenan Allen is one of the most dynamic players in the Pac-12.
Mark J. Rebilas/US Press Wire

Last season Cal opened with three straight wins, including a shellacking of Presbyterian in their final warm up game before the conference season. The Bears then lost a close one in Seattle (31-23) against the Huskies before walking into a buzz saw against Oregon (43-15) the next week. Another loss to USC leveled their record at 3-3. Cal would win 3 of the next four, their only loss coming on the road against UCLA (31-14) and played rival Stanford close (31-28) before beating Arizona State in a shootout (47-38.) The Golden Bears were invited to the Holiday Bowl where they couldn't get the offense off the ground against a stifling defensive performance by Texas and fell 21-10.

In Coach Tedford's 11th campaign, he leads this year's edition of the Bears back to newly renovated Memorial Stadium. The schedule is favorable for California as they face their toughest division opponents at home. These match ups against Washington and Oregon will go a long way in deciding the Bears fate and post season outlook. They also face Stanford at home in what is one of the more storied rivalries in the Pac-12. The Bears will only face two out of conference opponents before having to go on the road to face Urban Meyer's Buckeyes in Columbus. The week following that they have to leave the iconic "Horseshoe" and travel back to USC to face the Trojans. It will be a trial by fire to see if Senior QB Zach Maynard has put it all together in what could be a swan song senior season.

Look no farther than the connection between Zach Maynard and wide receiver Keenan Allen for the offensive focus on this team. Last season, Maynard fell just short of a 3000 yard season tallying 2990 through the air. While he threw 17 touchdowns he was also intercepted 12 times and sacked 27. The Cal offensive line loses some beef from both sides of the O-line in Mitchell Schwartz and Justin Cheadle. However, the line is not inexperienced and will return three starters from a year ago. Maynard's favorite target, Keenan Allen will look to improve upon his successful second season which saw him go for 98 receptions totalling 1343 yards and 6 scores. Someone will need to step up opposite Allen in the WR department or he may see his production dip a bit. His former mate Marvin Jones kept secondaries honest and provided another vertical threat for Maynard.

While the passing offense gets the attention, what really makes the offense go is running back Isi Sofele. Last season, Sofele went over 1322 yards and tallied 10 touchdowns. In what is the most telling statistic, the Bears were 6-1 in games where Sofele carried the ball 20 times or more. The only game they lost was against Stanford who were the only squad to hold Sofele under 100 yards when he has 20 or more carries. What this shows is that if the offense is successfully and consistently running the ball than the Bears are dangerous. However, once the offense becomes one dimensional, it could spell a long day for the California faithful.

On defense, the Bears are going to miss the service of Pac-12 defensive player of the year Mychael Kendricks. Kendricks was a stalwart as the inside linebacker and really quarterbacked the defense. While he was a fantastic player, it is his leadership ability that will be missed most. Last season, the Bears tallied 12 interceptions but half of those were by seniors. With the influx of young talent for the Bears it will be interesting to see where the game changing plays are going to come from on the defensive side of the ball. One possible solution is Corner back Marc Anthony. Anthony was already establishing himself as a capable cover corner last season and will likely continue to grow and prove himself to be a pest in a league that is predominantly a passing conference.

Overall, the Bears are no team to write off and can give anyone in the conference a game and if they're playing at home they are very tough to beat. The optimistic outlook on the season puts them at 8-4 while a more downtrodden approach would see them conceivably low as 5-7 and missing the post season. That would be a rarity under coach Tedford who has only missed the post season 1 time since 2002 and has made bowl games an expectation. One expectation, realistic or not for the old blues is the Rose Bowl. The Bears have not been since 1959. For them to make it back this year would take a magical run for the senior class. They would need wins against Oregon, Stanford and likely Washington to get to the Championship game to face probable opponent USC out of the south. While it's a long shot, it's not outside the realm of possibility. All three must win division games are at home and one can never tell what can happen on any given Saturday.

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